From Campus to Capitol 3: How New Immigration Rules Will Reshape International Student Pipeline – H-1B Visa: From Random Lottery to “Weighted Selection” System

Building on previous analysis of proposed changes to the H-1B lottery system (For more details, please see our previous article, https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Snqm-FREwyfhSA9PrlpjbA), the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (DHS/USCIS) submitted a proposed rule ("Weighted Selection Proposal") to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on August 8, 2025, to replace the current H-1B random lottery with a weighted selection system prioritizing higher wage levels for review. It represents a fundamental shift from the current random selection process to a merit-based system prioritizing higher wage levels.

If you and your company have questions about U.S. immigration policy or need tailored legal support, please contact our Partner, Anna Sun, at contact@consultils.com.

Impact on Selection Odds

Current wage distribution shows the stark impact this change would have:

• Level 1 wages: 30% of current petitions → Dramatically reduced selection chances

• Level 2 wages: 50% of current petitions → Moderate impact

• Levels 3 & 4 wages: 15% of current petitions → Significantly improved odds

This shift would particularly impact new graduates from U.S. universities, who often begin their careers in junior positions with corresponding compensation levels. The policy change could effectively reverse the traditional pathway for international students to transition from F-1 status to permanent employment authorization through the H-1B program.

Economic Consequences and Compliance Risks

The weighted selection framework creates strong economic incentives for employers to artificially inflate salaries to improve their candidates' selection odds, leading to potential wage misrepresentation and triggering investigations by the Department of Labor and USCIS. Such compliance violations could result in significant penalties and permanent bars from the H-1B program.

Startups and small businesses face particular challenges under this system, as they typically operate with limited budgets and struggle to compete with larger corporations capable of offering premium salaries. These companies would encounter increased labor costs and competitive disadvantages in recruiting international talent, potentially stifling innovation in emerging technology sectors.

Established employers may need to restructure their entire compensation frameworks to ensure foreign national employees qualify at higher wage levels, creating internal equity issues and potentially inflating overall salary structures beyond market rates.

Timeline and Implementation Uncertainty

The Weighted Selection Proposal currently remains under OMB review and has not yet been published in the Federal Register for public comment. Implementation timeline remains uncertain, as the rulemaking process typically requires extensive public input and regulatory analysis.

The current proposal's relationship to previous policy initiatives adds complexity to the implementation landscape. A similar weighted selection rule was published at the end of the first Trump administration in 2020 but was subsequently withdrawn by the Biden administration after being vacated by a federal district court. The degree of similarity between the current proposal and the previous version remains unknown.

Preparation Strategies

While still subject to public comment, the policy direction clearly favors experienced, high-wage workers over recent graduates and entry-level positions.

For current F-1 students, the priority should be maximizing academic efficiency and pursuing the highest degree level possible while these programs remain available under current rules. Students approaching graduation should aggressively pursue H-1B opportunities and consider alternative visa categories before the weighted selection system takes effect.

Employers must begin salary benchmarking exercises immediately and consider restructuring compensation packages to ensure international employees qualify for higher prevailing wage levels. Small businesses and startups should explore alternative visa categories and consider the long-term viability of international hiring strategies under these new constraints.

Looking Ahead

While these proposals remain subject to public comment and potential revision, the direction of policy change is clear. Stakeholders should prepare for a more restrictive, expensive, and complex immigration system that fundamentally alters the traditional pathways for international talent in the United States. The success of future immigration endeavors will increasingly depend on early planning, strategic positioning, and comprehensive understanding of these evolving regulatory requirements.

As part of our From Campus to Capitol series, earlier articles examined two other major shifts: Part 1 reviewed the Trump Administration’s proposal to eliminate “duration of status” for student visas, while Part 2 analyzed the State Department’s restrictions on nonimmigrant visa interview locations. Readers interested in the broader tightening of student and short-term visa rules can follow the links to explore those articles in full.

If you and your company have questions about U.S. immigration policy or need tailored legal support, please contact our Partner, Anna Sun, at contact@consultils.com.

Disclaimer: The materials provided on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not, and are not intended to, constitute legal advice. You should not act or refrain from acting based on any information provided here. Please consult with your own legal counsel regarding your specific situation and legal questions.

As Partner and Head of Immigration at ILS, Anna advises global employers on all aspects of U.S. business immigration. She helps companies recruit and retain executives and highly skilled professionals essential to their U.S. operations, with experience spanning industries from autonomous driving and biotech, to entertainment, logistics, and manufacturing.

Previously, Anna practiced at leading global law firms and served as in-house counsel and compliance manager in the telecommunications, finance, and gaming industries. This diverse background equips her with practical, cross-industry insights that inform strategic, business-focused immigration solutions.

Email: contact@consultils.com | Phone: 626-344-8949